This was one of those flights that really makes me think about the decision making process a pilot needs to work through to decide it's safe to fly. Because there are so many risks inherent in flying an airplane, we as pilots have to pay extra attention to ensure that we are controlling and managing those factors that we can affect or simply decide not to fly if the factors are beyond our ability and experience. On this day, wind was the significant risk factor with morning wind blowing from the north at around 17 miles per hour gusting to nearly 30 miles per hour - while not strong enough to knock any trees down, certainly enough to blow around a little Cessna 152 making a safe controlled landing more than a small challenge and probably not safe. Now, you already know I ended up going flying, so how did I come to decide that it was safe?
Chapter one of my Private Pilot Handbook (the pilot version of a college textbook) jumps right into the topic of aeronautical decision making (ADM) and may be one of the elements of flying that can really keep a pilot up at night before a flight where weather is a significant factor. One of the elements of ADM is communication. For me, I am trying to, and slowly getting better at communicating with those who are flying with me yet am still trying to find the balance of keeping them informed, yet not scaring them with too much information. In this case, I told Jeanine that we could drive out to the airport, but there was a chance that we'd just stay on the ground because of the wind. I don't think that's enough communication though, I also try and reassure that a decision to fly will include a good margin of safety and in general, I want to make sure my passengers know they have the power to veto the flight if they are not comfortable.
The wind outlook for the afternoon indicated that the gusts should quickly die down in the afternoon and become steady at 10 - 12 mph. To help myself out before I left for the airport, I decided that with my level of experience with wind, and the weight and performance of the airplane, that I would not take off if the gusts were above 21 mph, a way to make the go/no-go decision much easier once at the airport, and also a decision that my passenger would have an easier time visualizing as well.
In many ways, the final decision comes down to a combination of the actual weather data - such as my choice not to fly with gusts above 21 mph on this day, but also a proper amount of gut instinct. Quality gut instinct really comes from experience in similar conditions, which is tough as no flight has exactly the same factors at play. So you try and separate the factors into individual items which you've seen before and can more clearly analyze. It's standing at the airport and watching the windsock to see if the wind is generally steady in one direction, or blowing rapidly back and forth, it's getting a second opinion from other pilots at the airport, it's looking at the sky and the trees to see if birds are having trouble flying, and reading and re-reading the local weather reports, it's taking it slow to build a case for, or against the flight. I sometimes ask myself if I have to evaluate a flight this much, is it worth the risk - should I just not go? Sometimes the answer is not to fly. But in a way, I hope that each time I go flying, I am paying this much attention to all the factors of flight in an attempt to always make an informed and safe decision. So I took my time at the airport and made sure I was at no point determined to fly as that's a sure way to make the wrong choice.
As it turns out, by the time we got to the airport things were looking better, the wind was blowing steady at 13 mph gusting 20 mph, a flight instructor had just come back from a flight in another 152 and reported that it was smooth up above, and the windsock was blowing steadily from 340 degrees on a 350 runway. The risk factors were not outside the envelope and by spending time coming to a decision, and by keeping my passenger informed of the risks and (hopefully) giving her confidence that I'd only decide to fly if the risks were within my experience level and the capability of the aircraft, that we could have a great flight without her needing to worry about her own safety. In this case, I decided to go.
As it turned out, it was a smooth takeoff leading to a surprisingly smooth flight given the amount surface level wind. I thought that this flight was actually one of the more beautiful local flights I've been on, with about the greenest farms I've ever seen, a completely clear sky with a clear view of the snow packed Sierras, a full Yolo flood basin below with the wind blowing across the water in a way that looked like little glimmering streamers in the water, just beautiful stuff. Once I was in the air and could tell it was going to be a beautiful and smooth flight, I momentarily felt embarrassed that I had approached the flight with such caution, but like I said, I really need to look at every flight with the realization that there are always risks involved in flying an airplane, and to do your best as a PIC is to understand the factors at play for each flight and attempt to make safe conservative decisions each time you head to the airport.
And now enough with the boring stuff. Here are the photos:
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